Is the Entertainment Fading? The Decline of Open-Play Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves managed 10 fewer scores from open play than this point the previous campaign.

A major talking point of the EPL this campaign has been the reduction of scoring in open-play scenarios and how clubs have been scoring more from set-plays instead.

Looking at how goals have been scored to matchday 11 the prior season, we note 39 fewer scored in open play and an increase of 26 from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, resulting in 13 less altogether.

Considering the broader view, the number of shots sides are producing show an incredible drop of 370 in open-play than at this stage last season.

Even with the significant rise in set-play finishes, there have actually been a mere two extra shots generated from them outside of penalties, showing the proficiency sides are at finding ways to net from dead-ball chances.

Goal Statistics Reveal a Story

The 301 goals notched in the first 110 fixtures up to now calculates at nearly 2.75 goals each match, which if it continued for all 38 games could be the least for half a decade, since 2020-21 (2.69).

Yet merely 196 scores coming in open play averages out 1.78 per fixture and is heading to be the lowest for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76 average).

That campaign is also the unique EPL campaign to see goals scored more frequently from non-penalty set-pieces than the current rate of 0.77 each match (0.79).

What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?

Regarding scoring from open-play, Wolves have experienced the largest decrease, netting a mere four in their first 11 fixtures, 10 less than this point last season.

Apart from Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in open-play scoring is very much a London thing, with five out of the city's seven teams recording a minimum of five fewer goals from open play than the previous year.

To be fair, that's largely down to their scoring lots of scores at the beginning of the previous campaign instead of their genuine struggle to convert in open play this campaign.

Conversely Manchester City have seen the biggest increase, with nearly all of the 23 they've scored to date originating in open-play.

Set-Play Proficiency

Comparing newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they took the place of. Sunderland Sunderland have recorded three more scores in open-play than Southampton achieved in their first 11 games on their way to demotion last season.

When it comes to goals scored from set-pieces (aside from spot-kicks), Arsenal and the Blues have experienced the most significant jump, with each team replacing the reduction of five scores that they've scored in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball situations.

United have scored two times more scores from set-pieces as they achieved in matchday 11 last season before the manager took charge, while Sunderland once more are more effective at converting than the fellow red-and-whites that went down.

Man City seem unaware of the message about increasing scoring from set-pieces, because they've netted three less than the previous campaign, as have the Reds, though this could be because of the change in style they're working to install.

Overall Patterns

Six clubs – the Gunners, Chelsea, Fulham, the Magpies, Spurs and West Ham – are this season's top trend-setters by scoring fewer goals from open play and more from set-plays, while Man City are the only side to buck the trend to date by achieving the exact opposite.

It remains to be seen to see if sides carry on to depend greatly on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their general attacking flair and begin netting increased totals in open play as well.

Erica Hodge
Erica Hodge

A tech strategist with over a decade of experience in digital transformation and business analytics, passionate about sharing actionable insights.