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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple script. It commonly serves as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly different. The list of nominees is remarkably deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division champions falling away and recent also-rans rising collectively. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff blend of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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